NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is quietly preparing a new artificial intelligence chip for China that would surpass the performance of its current H20 model, even as US regulators weigh how much access Chinese companies should have to cutting-edge American technology.Two people briefed on the matter told Reuters that the chip, tentatively called the B30A, is based on NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell architecture and is expected to deliver roughly half the computing power of the company’s flagship dual-die B300 accelerator card. Like the H20, the new chip is rumored to include high-bandwidth memory and NVLink interconnect technology, but offer more power for Chinese clients.NVIDIA has not confirmed the project but said in a statement as reported by Reuters: “We evaluate a variety of products for our roadmap, so that we can be prepared to compete to the extent that governments allow. Everything we offer is with the full approval of the applicable authorities and designed solely for beneficial commercial use.”US President Donald Trump last week said he was open to the possibility of more advanced NVIDIA chips being sold to China, though he stopped short of detailing specific policy moves. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, asked about the matter in a CNBC interview, acknowledged that NVIDIA Chief Executive Jensen Huang has been lobbying aggressively.“Of course (Huang) would like to sell a new chip to China,” Lutnick said. “I’ve listened to him pitch the president, and the president listens to our great technology companies, and he’ll decide how he wants to play it. But the fact Jensen is pitching a new chip shouldn’t surprise anybody.”The Department of Commerce has so far declined to comment on the chip or the possibility of export license adjustments.

​A critical earnings test
Currently, the semiconductor giant is preparing to report its second quarter earnings on Wednesday (August 27), an event widely seen as a litmus test of the growing AI boom that has propelled US equity markets since 2022.NVIDIA shares have climbed more than 30 percent this year and roughly 1,400 percent since October 2022, cementing its place among the “Magnificent 7” mega-cap technology companies driving much of the S&P 500’s gains.Wall Street expects NVIDIA to post another blockbuster quarter, with earnings per share up 48 percent on revenue of about US$45.9 billion, according to LSEG data. In recent memory, NVIDIA has become a proxy for the AI sector as hyperscale cloud providers pour billions into new data centers powered by its chips. The company’s dominance is reinforced by the ramp-up of its new Blackwell B200 GPUs, which saw supply rise 40 percent in Q2 and could increase another 20 percent in Q3 according to estimates.For all its momentum, a key question hanging over NVIDIA’s outlook is whether China will be part of its future guidance. “If (NVIDIA) were to include China in its guidance, we believe it would contribute an incremental US$2–3 billion in revenue,” noted KeyBanc analyst John Vinh. KeyBanc raised its Q2 revenue forecast to US$47.1 billion, ahead of Wall Street’s consensus, and lifted its price target to US$215 from US$190. The firm now expects NVIDIA to ship 30,000 units of its high-end GB200 rack systems this year, up from a prior forecast of 25,000.However, the company still finds itself squeezed between surging demand from Chinese clients and tightening US restrictions. In addition to chip export restrictions imposed by Washington, NVIDIA is also expected to continue paying a 15 percent levy on Chinese chip sales to the US government.Despite the geopolitical overhang, investors remain overwhelmingly bullish on NVIDIA. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) recently called it the most undervalued mega-cap stock in the market, citing its strong position in AI accelerators and the growing appetite for AI-driven computing power across multiple industries.

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